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‘Global Macro and Geopolitical Outlook 2026’ webinar recording

Access the recording of our webinar on the global macro and geopolitical outlook for 2026.

Jo Lock (GICP, Fitch Learning) and Cedric Chehab (BMI) examine the forces likely to shape the macro environment in 2026, including inflation, rates, geopolitics and fiscal policy. The session is relevant for credit investors, analysts and professionals tracking macro risks and market direction.

Key takeaways

  • Global growth is expected to remain broadly stable in 2026 supported by fiscal stimulus, monetary easing and continued corporate profitability.
  • Geopolitics remains the main macro risk driver: While economic volatility has eased, geopolitical risks, including trade tensions and regional instability, are likely to remain elevated.
  • Inflation is easing but remains above target in many markets with tariffs, energy prices and supply factors still relevant.
  • Interest rate decisions remain sensitive to inflation and labor markets: Central banks are expected to continue easing, though policy decisions remain sensitive to inflation and labor market developments.
  • Credit market conditions reflect high long-end yields and wider issuance, with expectations of some spread widening alongside resilient overall returns.
  • Structural shifts are creating a more complex global investment environment and uncertainty for investors.

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Announcing the new ‘Guide to Careers in Credit’: Navigating the future of credit

The GICP has published the latest edition of ‘A Guide to Careers in Credit’.  The guide is designed to help credit professionals understand where skills premiums are emerging, how roles are evolving, and how to position for opportunity amid today’s market dynamics and employer expectations.

The guide reflects a fast-shifting landscape shaped by higher-for-longer rates, the 2025–2027 refinancing wall, fluid career paths across sell side, buy side, private credit, risk and fintech, and rising expectations for communication, stakeholder management and ethics alongside core credit fundamentals.

What’s new:

  • Increased use of AI in credit:
    • The guide spotlights AI literacy and LLM application skills as key to improving speed and accuracy.
    • It details growing competencies in AI/ML for credit risk, including GenAI for data extraction/analysis and workflow optimization, plus AI/NLP tools for transcripts, filings and sentiment feeds used in production and research delivery.
  • Growth of private credit:
    • Private credit expansion is reshaping traditional career ladders, creating new mid-career entry points and boosting hiring in direct lending, special situations, origination, structuring and portfolio monitoring.
    • Market factors show increased competition for talent from private credit and hedge funds, lifting salaries in these areas, with private credit expertise commanding a premium.
  • Increased regulation in credit:
    • The guide highlights regulator demands (Basel III Endgame, ECB, Fed, FINMA) entering the credit agenda.
    • Hiring trends underscore demand for talent with regulatory awareness, AI model oversight and automation skills amid stronger oversight of disclosure and transparency.

Also inside:

  • Essential skills for the future of credit.
  • Career and learning and development pathways.
  • ‘What to watch’ sections highlighting key trends and market opportunities.
  • Compensation data for key roles and regions.

Explore the full guide to build a clear, long-term career pathway from early roles to senior leadership in credit.

Get your copy here.

‘Credit in Focus 2026’ webinar recording

Explore this webinar on the 2026 outlook for Asian credit markets and banking risks.

David Wong (GICP and Fitch Learning) and Pramod Shenoi (CreditSights) discuss the macro and market forces shaping APAC debt markets, from tariffs and private credit to AI-driven issuance trends. The session is relevant for credit investors, banking professionals and analysts focused on Asia-Pacific markets.

Key takeaways

  • Asian credit market issuance and spreads have improved: Bond issuance has recovered in 2025, helping reduce the supply imbalance that had previously distorted spreads and investor allocations.
  • 2026 bond outlook favors duration despite wider credit spreads: The speakers expect lower US Treasury yields next year, alongside some spread widening, which could still support positive bond returns overall.
  • Tariff risks in Asia are becoming clearer: While trade policy remains a source of uncertainty, preliminary agreements across several Asian markets have reduced some of the earlier disruption fears.
  • Country-specific risks remain important across Asian markets: Investors should watch economy-specific pressures in markets such as Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines and Hong Kong, where domestic vulnerabilities remain important.
  • Private credit risks are drawing closer investor scrutiny: The discussion highlighted concerns around underwriting discipline, liquidity terms and the potential for stress if market conditions deteriorate.
  • AI investment is reshaping issuance and credit market trends: Large-scale spending on AI infrastructure is reshaping issuance trends and raising new questions for credit investors around sustainability, supply and long-term returns.

Watch the recording